We at Vista Grande routinely and rigorously profile shoppers based on their attitudes, typically on dimensions of quality, convenience, health, social responsibility, and value to help our CPG clients market, innovate, and evolve consumables categories.
Some of our profiling questions can seem a little forward or intrusive as we classify anonymous survey respondents on matters such as income, race, or ethnicity. I confess I’m a little uncomfortable about it, and we’ve made some modifications to keep up with the times, e.g., added a third gender option, allow for multi-select on race, etc. I’ve often wondered if we’re willing to ask such personal and touchy questions, why not go further and ask other sensitive questions such as sexual orientation or religious affiliation? We haven’t gone there yet, but in the spirit of election season we have decided to firmly touch another third rail among polite company: presidential politics (breathe in, breathe out).
The topic of this article is the relationship between voting preference and dietary preference (specifically, attitudes toward meat consumption). We all know this is a country divided by political lines and we see how that manifests itself in areas completely outside governmental policy such as what we read, watch, play, listen to, etc. So why not look at what we eat, too?
Well, we did. The following data reflects responses from 9,335 survey respondents in October 2020. First, let’s lay down 5 dietary group definitions for clarity:
1. Carnivore = unabashed and enthusiastic meat-eater (all-in)
2. Meat Reducer = trying to eat less beef or pork (wants to be good but let’s not get too crazy about it)
3. Flexitarian = a semi-vegetarian, eats mostly plants, a little meat or poultry (admires Michael Pollan)
4. Pescatarian = meat from the lake, river, or sea only
5. Vegetarian = plants only, includes vegans who pass on dairy and maybe honey, depending on whom you ask
Here’s how adult Americans break out according to those definitions…
So roughly speaking, half of Americans are whole hog on meat consumption, 40% are shifting some meals from red meat to white meat or fish for health reasons, and 10% are cutting way back or have gone cold Tofurky on the meat industry for health, environmental, or animal welfare reasons.
We cut the data based on a variety of demographic and geographic factors. Several of the usual demos yielded little correlation, for instance:
· Men (53%) were slightly more likely to be Carnivores than women (49%).
· Middle-aged were slightly most likely Carnivores; Gen Z and Seniors were least likely to be Carnivores. (What about Millennials, you reflexively ask? Average.)
· Income predicts nothing.
Race was highly interesting. Less than a third of Black Americans are full-fledged Carnivores compared to 53% of Whites, 45% of Hispanics, and 38% of Asians.
We see some key differences by region of the country:
· West North Central (62%) and East South Central (58%) residents are most likely to be Carnivores.
· Pacific (42%) and Mid-Atlantic (47%) residents are least likely to be Carnivores.
Population density was highly revealing with Americans living in rural environments 20pts more likely to be Carnivores than Americans living in urban areas.
Which brings us to the most pressing matter at hand: presidential candidate preference. Given what we’ve shared on race, region, and ruralness you can probably guess the correlation. Below we show the presidential candidate preference of each of our 5 dietary groups:
So, do we vote like we eat? Yep! Biden has a 20-point lead among Meat Reducers and Flexitarians, and he has a 40-point lead among Pescatarians and Vegetarians. If we were living in the USVA (United States of Vegan America) we could call this one for Biden now and not stay up to 2am Tuesday night.
On the other hoof, Trump is killing it with half of America who wants its meat and likes it red. So, when David Alexrod disparages the Trump rally for throwing red meat at its base, perhaps Trump campaign staffers should follow his advice literally.
This is the 3rd in a series of articles on the run-up to Election Day. If you like this content, then please check out the other articles and consider following our Vista Grande page on LinkedIn. I promise we'll get to other topics after next Tuesday.
